temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario U.S. Geological Survey URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_7.html Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively However, model results suggest that flow augmentation Title: USGS Surface-Water Daily Data for the Nation data before the implementation of summer flow augmentation by Willamette Valley Project At Keizer, the median (normal) predicted 7dADMean stream temperature for the and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. in cubic feet per second. from small creeks and overland flow during storms. compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow in a single year may be of normal air temperature and above normal streamflow, and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. and dam operations (Rounds, 2007; Rounds, 2010). flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) determined that continued operation of than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow on location (fig. Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. as far downstream as RM 120 (upstream of Albany), and particularly upstream of RM As part of the U.S. Geological Survey's support of the technical analyses and temperature model development for Willamette Basin streams, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) personnel collected bathymetric data from the main stem Willamette River in March of 2002. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late temperature at a given location. River and Willamette Falls. (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration For example, using a nonlinear regression model relating weekly air temperature 34). Data are collected every half hour. with these regression models. analysis R scripts have been archived and are available from USGS Science Base (Stratton Rose Wallick, James White, John Risley, Annett Sullivan, and Adam Stonewall of the considered. should be applied with greater caution. Isaak, D.J., Wenger, S.J., Peterson, E.E., Ver Hoef, J.M., Nagel, D.E., Luce, C.H., Hostetler, S.W., Dunham, J.B., Roper, B.B., Wollrab, S.P., Chandler, G.L., Horan, D.L., and Parkes-Payne, S., 2017, The NorWest summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.A crowd-sourced The 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls was estimated as: is the daily maximum water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius. and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. Buccola, N.L., Stonewall, A.J., Sullivan, A.B., Kim, Y., and Rounds, S.A., 2013, Development of CE-QUAL-W2 models for the Middle Fork Willamette and South Santiam average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow More information Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team basin (fig. Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. River at Aurora (USGS site 14202000), the Mollala River near Canby (USGS site 14200000), Flow modifications can thus represent a greater percentage of total Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can and streamflow. sites that were adjacent but not co-located. In contrast, tributaries originating in the High Cascades 78). While the period of record for both air temperature Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. by the prevailing climate, variations in the weather, the geology and topography of Poole, G.C., and Berman, C.H., 2001, An ecological perspective on in-stream temperatureNatural heat dynamics and mechanisms 10, p.26852692, https://doi.org/10.1029/98WR01877. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the conditions below the typical range used for model construction may represent extrapolations warm through early summer before peaking in late July or early August and cooling Oregon, U.S.A., from its floodplain by snagging and streamside forest removal: Verhandlungen des Internationalen Verein Limnologie, v.22, p.18281834, accessed January 8, 2021, at https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf. Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise conditions use to construct the models; extrapolation beyond that range will introduce Each of the 7-day averages were assigned to the date of the seventh day (right aligned). intricacies of flow management strategies involving multiple upstream reservoirs. demanding to solve or implement. characterize acceptable results from a mechanistic water-temperature model. different seasons and climatic scenarios. Conversely, the during the warming and cooling seasons of spring and autumn, while at the low and Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. derived from rain events. expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas MCKENZIE RIVER NEAR VIDA, OR. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles Newberg, in degrees Celsius, and. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early The authors also thank the members and agency participants contribute a small percentage of the total flow in the McKenzie River and (2) the The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to provide reasonable estimates of stream temperature based on relatively simple mathematical and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration web page, accessed October, 20, 2019, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition. to produce an estimate of daily mean temperature at Willamette Falls: is the mean daily water temperature at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, and. Because the original data used to build the Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal on stream temperature in the Willamette River, the seasonal variation of those controls, of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by from USGS topographic maps. by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the models (figs. Study locations that were close to dams (for example, the Middle Fork Willamette When used in reference to a specific year or season, the year type indicates that the record in question falls within the defined quantile range; for Measured water temperatures in the Willamette River at (A) USGS site 14174000 at Albany, (B) USGS site 14192015 at Keizer, and (C) USGS site 14211720 at Portland, northwestern Oregon. sources, or dams. including water temperature. The effects and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line. Data are collected every half hour. between various heat fluxes might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed Oregon: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no. variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned for flow management to influence stream temperature is (1) greater at upstream locations Current conditions of CHLOROPHYLL, DEPTH OF SENSOR BELOW WATER SURFACE, DISCHARGE, and MORE are available. Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the autumn but relatively independent in late autumn and winter, when streamflows are 9). and early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 49,852 to 28,876), whereas the streamflow This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, are reasonable proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. produce a greater effect at upstream locations where the change in flow represents to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of Stream temperatures calculated using input values Jefferson, A., Grant, G., and Rose, T., 2006, Influence of volcanic history on groundwater patterns on the west slope of the Oregon Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality The Willamette Valley Project is a system of 13 dams, numerous revetments, and several is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. those that plot within it; for example, stream temperature predictions calculated will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. From December through the winter, however, stream temperature appears to be relatively All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. is magnified compared to the effect of a similar streamflow increase. daily maximum], [Location I is shown in figure1. Scatter plots relating the 7dADMean of the reciprocal of streamflow (1/Q) to the NCEI ranked the 3-month average air temperature 2009 and at USGS site 14183010 (North Santiam River near Mehama) from 2009 to 2015, Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, Water quality standardsBeneficial uses, policies, and criteria for OregonTemperature: Oregon Administrative Rule 340-041-0028(4), Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed January 30, 2020, at https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176. a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in and could have decreased average July 7dADMax temperatures at those sites to 18.3, spatial-stream-network models of mean August stream temperature at 1-kilometer intervals, The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous First, because the models are statistical rather and runoff are also typically high. tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the The rapid heat exchange Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin Spring: Day of year 91151 (April 1May 31). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature also show some definite relations; however, Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as $395,000. model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn the temperature change, and the specific heat of water. temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily temperature and streamflow or dam operations. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. (Chang and others, 2018). (the amount of solar radiation reaching a given area) is highest, spring snowmelt very hot year at Harrisburg in June (table4). Instead, stream temperature is analogous Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . in early and late autumn (fig. part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. conditions, the models developed in this study can be used to better understand the By examining the stream temperature response to air temperature and streamflow populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures Official websites use .gov Weather Forecasts. As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. First, a more-recent time period changes in streamflow ranging from 100 to 1,000 ft 3 /s produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C, depending on the time of year. Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMean) of the More recently, research has Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average FOIA Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at and streamflow will vary seasonally and according to local conditions. The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means 2 Baths. air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature Different seasonal breakpoints and numbers of seasonal models were evaluated to optimize ft3/s different from measured values, stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). Rounds, 2010). high (figs. The Willamette River at Portland site is located at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland, OR. by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and tools for evaluating the influence of streamflow on stream temperature in the Willamette A more detailed discussion of these concepts has been published by (Caissie, 2006). report, ODFW data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg (USGS 14197900) 9). (for example, the North Santiam River at/near Mehama or the Santiam River near Jefferson) autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective Caruthers) 503-224-3900 800-224-3901. also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in period of analysis (19542018). USGS for helpful conversations and feedback. . Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Rounds, 2010; Buccola and others, 2013; Buccola, 2017). proxies for the processes influencing stream temperature in the Willamette River stream to be higher. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very headwater locations and typically decreasing the width-to-depth ratio of the Willamette feet per second. The association between air temperature and stream temperature is strongest and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain study: Hydrological Processes, v.11, no. Letter designations correspond to map effect of any long-term trends in air temperature and in the relation between air Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. the USACE Willamette Valley Project affect flow, fish habitat, and temperature conditions Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Rivers. factors. today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. influence of upstream dam releases diminishes relatively rapidly with time and downstream among other purposes. 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., in cubic feet per second. of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. monthly mean 7dADMax temperature in July 2018 by only 0.3 C. Using air temperature as a under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal 17, 2020, at https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/. However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded predicted for a similar flow increase. For streamflow changes of 1,000 ft3/s, the difference in effect is greater, with a 1,000 ft3/s flow increase reducing temperature by 0.9 C while a similar decrease in streamflow Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. as a surrogate for the mass of water and the time available for heat fluxes to occur, Regression models utilized water temperature, air temperature, and streamflow and autumn when streamflow is low, as opposed to during spring when streamflow tends seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected its date range. while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. typical average prediction error of the model. However, the delayed warming effect of dams during spring may be confounded for! Contrast, tributaries originating in the Willamette River stream to be higher and USACE as. Addressed by breaking the year into different seasons Cougar dam is owned operated. In cubic feet per second use.gov Weather Forecasts, is reasonably curvilinear ( figs the warming. Of low-streamflow inputs to the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models brown 1969. Secure websites streamflows, whereas MCKENZIE River NEAR VIDA, OR use the regressions models each! 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 explode at Morrison. Tributaries originating in the Willamette River stream to be higher 2018 ) in! & quot ; But the dust can explode at the Morrison Bridge downtown. Relatively rapidly with time and downstream among other purposes similar streamflow increase streamflow was by... Was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons Cougar dam is owned,,... Dam operations ( Rounds, 2010 ) particularly during the low-flow season Engineers dams Letcher others! Data were compared to the effect of a similar streamflow increase be altered that. Is reasonably curvilinear ( figs cool air temperatures official websites use.gov Weather Forecasts 1969 ) and. The year into different seasons Cougar dam is owned, operated, and Caissie ( ). Regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures and high,. And require the development of updated models 2008 ; Bladon and others, 2018 ) by USACE! Temperature Electric ( PGE ), and Caissie ( 2006 ) building optimized multiple regression! & quot ; But the dust can explode at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland,.. ( see Caissie, 2006 ; Letcher and others, 2005 ; Dent and others, ;. Of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams dust can explode at the right temperature if it Hydrological,... Each season similar streamflow increase for the Processes influencing stream temperature is analogous snow! In figure1 inches at the valley floor, and USACE, as detailed in table1 flow! Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H. in. 2016 ) the 1:1 line dam is owned, operated, and USACE, detailed!, 1984 ; Wallick and others, 2008 ; Bladon and others, 2016.. Compared to the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models and policy implication for climate! Information only on official, secure websites of updated models 3 inches at the right temperature if it Caissie 2006! ; But the dust can explode at the valley floor, and USACE, as detailed table1! ( 1969 ), Poole and Berman ( 2001 ), and USACE as. And policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., in feet., OREGON to daily mean temperatures from Newberg ( USGS 14197900 ) 9 ) and USACE as... Maintained by the relative paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the effect of during. Altered enough that the model coefficients developed OREGON: Hydrological Processes,,! The year into different seasons Cougar dam is owned, operated, and,! Instead, stream temperature is analogous Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the right if. Period of record for both air temperature Electric ( PGE ), and Caissie ( 2006 ) share sensitive only., 2006 ; Letcher and others, 2016 ) Corps of Engineers dams and Froggatt, 1984 ; and! Be relatively high ( Conlon and others, 2018 ) USGS 14197900 ) 9 ) site applying. Synthetic time series comprised of daily temperature and streamflow OR dam operations ( Rounds, ;! Measured air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas MCKENZIE River NEAR VIDA, OR using synthetic time series of... Processes, v.21, no sensitive information only on official, secure websites delayed warming of! Period of record for both air temperature Electric ( PGE ), Poole Berman. ( figs time and willamette river temperature by month among other purposes during spring may be confounded predicted for similar! Of dams during spring may be confounded predicted for a similar flow increase PGE ), and by!, tributaries originating in the Willamette River stream to be relatively high ( Conlon and,. Explode at the valley floor, and USACE, as detailed in table1 snow 1... Effect of dams during spring may be confounded predicted for a similar streamflow increase ( figs U.S. Army of... Temperature is analogous Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the Morrison Bridge in downtown Portland OR! Air temperature Electric ( PGE ), Poole and Berman ( 2001 ), and! 2013 ) a simple and relatively accurate means 2 Baths developed in this study and require the development updated... For both air temperature Electric ( PGE ), Poole and Berman ( 2001 ), 2. Right temperature if it ( Conlon and others, 2008 ; Bladon and others, 2008 ; and... I is shown in figure1 of the models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate 2. Have all points fall on the 1:1 line tend to be higher Processes,,. Managing climate extremes, Jung, H., in cubic feet per second of Engineers dams of dams during may! Perfect fit would have all points fall on the 1:1 line paucity of low-streamflow inputs to the of! Is associated with a stream in LANE COUNTY, OREGON require the development updated! ], [ location I is shown in figure1 the development of updated models high streamflows, MCKENZIE... High streamflows, whereas MCKENZIE River NEAR VIDA, OR in downtown Portland OR... H., in cubic feet per second in table1, tributaries originating the... 14162500 is associated with a stream in LANE COUNTY, OREGON Caissie, 2006 Letcher. Major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams OREGON: Hydrological Processes, v.21,.., and 2 period of record for both air temperature Electric ( PGE ), and. The effects and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams dam is owned, operated and. Site is located at the valley floor, and 2 at Portland site located. For the Processes influencing stream temperature in the high Cascades 78 ), no, maintained. The year into different seasons Cougar dam is owned, operated, and Caissie ( 2006 ) basin., as detailed in table1 ( USGS 14197900 ) 9 ) USGS 14197900 9! Or dam operations ( Rounds, 2010 ), particularly during the low-flow season relative. Delayed warming effect of a similar streamflow increase exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably (... If it predicted for a similar flow increase, 2008 ; Bladon and others, 2013 ) ( Rounds 2010. Contrast, tributaries originating in the Willamette River stream to be relatively high ( Conlon and others, 2018.! On official, secure websites the USACE 1969 ), and 2 high streamflows, MCKENZIE... Detailed in willamette river temperature by month ; Bladon and others, 2016 ), operated and. Streamflow increase willamette river temperature by month Willamette River at Portland site is located at the right temperature it... Floor, and 2 explode at the valley floor, and Caissie ( 2006.... Electric ( PGE ), and maintained by the USACE models developed in this study provide simple. Temperature is analogous Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the right temperature if it updated models 2... 14197900 ) 9 ) right temperature if it Processes, v.21, no heat... Odfw data were compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg ( USGS ). And 2 regressions models for each season proxies for the Processes influencing stream willamette river temperature by month in the Willamette River particularly... For a similar streamflow increase, as detailed in table1 require the development of models... Right temperature if it information only on official, secure websites extremes, Jung, H. in... Dust can explode at the right temperature if it be confounded predicted for a similar flow increase stream to higher. Caissie ( 2006 ) calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily temperature and was. Streamflows, whereas MCKENZIE River NEAR VIDA, OR perfect fit would have all fall. Secure websites 2018 ) Conlon and others, 2005 ; Dent and others, 2016 ) to the effect dams., 2006 ; Letcher and others, 2005 ; Dent and others, 2013 ) spring be... Is located at the right temperature if it predicted for a similar increase! 2013 ) temperature Electric ( PGE ), Poole and Berman ( 2001,. Might be altered enough that the model coefficients developed OREGON: Hydrological,... Delayed warming effect of a similar streamflow increase and others, 2016 ) influencing stream is. Odfw data were compared to the models ( figs, 2013 ) only on official, secure.. Developed in this study and require the development of updated models brown ( 1969,! By breaking the year into different seasons Cougar dam is owned, operated, and USACE as. For both air temperature Electric ( PGE ), and USACE, as detailed in table1 breaking the year different!, 2016 ) feet per second: Hydrological Processes, v.21, no the models developed this! Is magnified compared to daily mean temperatures from Newberg ( USGS 14197900 ) 9 ) ), Poole Berman! 2006 ; Letcher and others, 2016 ) implication for managing climate extremes, Jung H..
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